Average Size of Web Pages plus Prediction

Data from Average Web Page Size Triples Since 2008 extrapolated to the years 2014 and 2015 via exponential fitting.

onlygraphs

Using data from websiteoptimization.com I graphed the development of web page sizes over the years. I also included the exponential fit:

wepagesize

As you can see, the 1/2 MB mark was cracked in 2009 and the 1 MB mark was cracked in 2012. Despite the seemingly random fluctuations, an exponential trend is clearly visible. The power 0.3 indicates that the web page sizes doubles about every 2.3 years. Assuming this exponential trend continues we will have these average sizes in the coming years:

 

2013 – ca. 1600 kb

2014 – ca. 2100 kb

2015 – ca. 2900 kb

 

So the 2 MB will probably be cracked in 2014 and in 2015 we will already be close to the 3 MB mark. Of course the trend is bound to flat out, but at this point there’s no telling when it will happen.

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